A Gay Marriage Reversal of Fortune?

posted by Josh Goodman

It's been a rough summer for gay marriage supporters, what with courts in New York, Washington, Georgia and Nebraska all ruling against them. But recent polls show that their fortunes could begin to change this fall.

That's when voters in at least six states will be deciding whether or not to define marriage as between a man and a woman in their constitutions. They will join the 16 states that have voted on similar gay marriage bans in the past 24 months, all of which passed quite easily.

In these states, the marriage referendums served as classic wedge issues in that they had the effect of dividing Democrats, thereby providing a political advantage to Republicans. Specifically, since 2004 the marriage amendments have received on average 71.8% of the vote, while in those same 16 states President Bush averaged 58.3% of the vote in 2004, for an average difference of 13.5% (see the full list below).

But polls in Wisconsin and Virginia, which have votes this fall, suggest that the size of that gap may be shrinking. In Virginia, where Bush received 54% of the vote in 2004, a brand new Mason-Dixon poll has the ban favored 56% to 38%, which, if you divide the undecideds evenly between the two sides, would give it 59% of the vote.

In Wisconsin, the situation is even more interesting -- this fall the Badger state could end up being the biggest gay marriage battleground in recent memory.

One Wisconsin poll had the ban ahead by a statistically insignificant 49%-48% margin, almost exactly the same as the 2004 presidential vote (Kerry won the state 50%-49%). Another survey gave it a 53%-44% edge. Regardless, Wisconsin will be the first state to vote on a ban on gay marriage where the result isn't a foregone conclusion.

Of course, as a matter of state law it doesn't matter whether a gay marriage ban passes with 51% of the vote or 75% of the vote. Nor does it matter much to the individuals affected by the policy. But, if these polls turn out to be right, the long-term political and policy implications are significant.

Obviously gay marriage will lose some of its political punch if it becomes just another issue where Republicans and Democrats are united in opposition to one another (as I argued last week, it also may be eclipsed by gay parenting issues). Furthermore, competitive votes would signal greater support for the broad array of gay rights causes, from non-discrimination laws to adoption to hate crimes. So, you can bet legislators around the country will be watching.

That said, these surveys should be taken with at least two caveats. One is that referendums are notoriously difficult to poll, while the other is that not all gay marriage bans are created equal. Both the Virginia and Wisconsin bans would also outlaw civil unions and, in Virginia's case, perhaps other same-sex partnerships. Although that distinction hasn't mattered much in marriage votes over the last couple of years, it could be gaining relevance now.

State              Ban %   Bush '04 %   Difference
Alabama*         81           62               19
Arkansas*        75           54               21
Georgia*          76           58               18
Kansas*           70           62                8
Kentucky*        75           60               15
Louisiana*       79           57               22
Michigan*        59           48               11
Mississippi      86           59                27
Missouri          71           53               18
Montana         67            59               8
North Dakota* 73           63               10
Ohio*             62            51               11
Oklahoma*     76            66               10
Oregon          57            47               10
Texas*           76            61               15
Utah*             66            72               -6

* Measure could be interpreted as barring civil unions in addition to gay marriage.

Comments

[Not Larry Sabato]

Very interesting.

[Bill Garnett]

Additionally, the marriage definition amendments are a proxy for the trend in America of the growing influence of the politically active religious right. It will be interesting to see if after November balloting there is any evidence of a tipping point for or against this movement, and whether Americans are yet to begin a backlash against this intrusion of church into state matters.

[Josh]

That's a timely comment given today's primaries for the Kansas State Board of Education, which pits evolution against intelligent design: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/01/us/01evolution.html?ref=us

[Kenton Ngo]

Much of the battle over the amendment in Virginia is not over gay marriage in and of itself, but of the wording of the amendment. The amendment on the ballot here is so vague that anti-amendment forces are focusing on the side effects. An internal poll for the Commonwealth Coalition did show a closer margin when the entire amendment was polled, not just the first sentence (45-40 in favor). The Mason-Dixon poll strangely did not bother to ask about the entire amendment.

[Richard Wilson]

Lest we forget...100 years ago in this country woman could not vote and the majority openly discriminated against non-white minorities (Blacks, Japanese, and Chinese).

This too shall pass.

[Vivian J. Paige]

Ah, but Richard, most of us won't be here in 100 years so we'd just as soon not have to deal with the discrimination.

[Claire Gastanaga]

I agree that, like other political issues, the so-called marriage amendments have a "product development curve" which, I think, came close to its peak in 2004. It's now 2006 and we may be just on the top of the curve about to slide slowly down the backside. If so, it will be helped by supporters who crossed the bridge too far in Virginia and South Dakota where amendments cover all manner of agreements and such between any unmarried individuals and have far reaching unintended consequences.

The Commonwealth Coalition's poll (poll memo linked in a post on Blogging the Amendment at www.voteNOva.wordpress.com and on our website at www.voteNOva.org) showed that, when voters read the whole text of the broadly written, vague and ambiguous proposal that will be question #1 on the ballot this fall, only 45% support it. This is the first time a poll in any state has shown an amendment below 50% at the start of a campaign. My understanding is that a Mason Dixon poll in South Dakota which involved the full question on their ballot also shows this kind of trend.

So, don't be so quick to write Virginia off for the fall. If we can get voters to read the whole text of the question on the ballot, the bet that will pay off is the one that is counter to conventional wisdom on this issue.

[Josh]

Claire and Kenton, thanks for the info. Last year, Mystery Pollster summarized the debate in polling circles over whether or not to read the full ballot text when polling referendums: http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2005/11/polling_the_pro.html (see #3). Because of the divergent results you describe, the Virginia vote won't just test voter views on gay rights, but also which polling approach works best.

[Right Democrat]

Gay marriage is a bad issue for Democrats. Many rank and file Democrats oppose gay marriage as well as swing voters. Support for gay marriage is political suicide in The South and Middle America.

The upscale "rich, white and secular" activists are the ones pushing the gay marriage agenda - not mainstream Democrats.

It's time for Democrats to return to economic populism and focus on being the party of working families. We cannot win elections and carry around the baggage of the exotic social issues.

[Cream City]

Astute analysis re Wisconsin. Also a facotr in Wisconsin is wording of the amendment that leaves open to judicial interpretation what it means re civil unions -- which all marriages must be by law, after all. That is increasingly the the focus of contention here . . . and there is another factor, i.e., another amendment.

What else is on the ballot matters, in any state, if it will increase Democratic turnout (more prone to be problematic owing to weather, work schedules, etc., than Republican turnout).

In Wisconsin, the ballot also will include an amendment allowing the death penalty. So if same-sex marriage does not bring out liberals, abolishing the death penalty will.

Of course, also on the ballot is a hotly contested gubernatorial election -- the reason that Republicans put these on the ballot now, against wishes of the national party to wait -- and an increasingly heated, contested attorney general election.

Both of those will bring out Republicans in force to win back both offices.

Additionally, there will be -- we know now for sure, as it is too late to fix them -- problems at the polls owing to changes in registration laws and other technical aspects that remain, simply, a mess. This will tend to have more impact on the urban (Milwaukee and Madison) and Democratic vote.

So, all told, it is too tough to call in Wisconsin. Turnout (and then lack of technical glitches) is uber alles -- and alles watch out for weather factors here as well. As Gordon Lightfoot wrote in the song about a Milwaukee-owned ship that went down in one of the Great Lakes bordering our great state, "the gales of November -- remember"?