posted by Josh Goodman
The Winston-Salem Journal reports that Hillary Clinton was the exception to the rule in North Carolina:
Eleven women were on the ballot last week running in primaries for statewide elective office. Seven of them won their races by beating male opponents. An eighth, Winston-Salem's Mary Fant Donnan, was the top vote-getter in the Democratic primary for commissioner of labor, and may face a runoff.
(Hat tip: Andrew Sullivan)
posted by Josh Goodman
Until last week, the 2010 Georgia gubernatorial race was going to be a snoozer. Popular U.S. Senator Johnny Isakson was going to coast to victory in the Republican primary and the general election. Yawn.
But that was before a startling revelation that seems certain to doom Isakson's gubernatorial aspirations: Isakson announced he is running for reelection in 2010 instead.
The result is a wide-open race for the Republican nomination, as evidenced by this brand-new poll from InsiderAdvantage:
John Oxendine: 17%
Casey Cagle: 17%
Jack Kingston: 10%
Karen Handel: 7%
Lynn Westmoreland: 6%
Jerry Keen: 2%
Undecided: 41%
Oxendine is the state insurance commissioner, Cagle is the lieutenant governor, Kingston is a congressman and Handel is the secretary of state. The absence of Isakson from the race should also give the Democratic nominee (whoever it might be) a better chance to win.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Jim Galloway also points out that Sonny Perdue, the current governor who is term-limited in 2010, may have his ambitions affected by Isakson's decision:
What hasn’t been mentioned is the fact that, by staying put in Washington, Isakson has put a limit — at least for the time being — on an extension of Sonny Perdue’s political career once he leaves the Governor’s Mansion.
For there was always the possibility that Isakson and Perdue could simply swap jobs in 2010.
Now there’s nowhere for Perdue to go — unless John McCain has something for him.
posted by Josh Goodman
Bob Novak hears some buzz for Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland as Barack Obama's running mate:
A footnote: Support is growing in Democratic ranks for Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland as vice president. He would bring to the ticket maturity (he's 66), experience (six terms in Congress) and moderation (rated ''A'' by the National Rifle Association). He is very popular in Ohio, a state Republicans must carry to elect a president.
One quibble: I'm not sure Strickland is "very popular" in Ohio. Strickland was at 54% approval, 39% disapproval in an April SurveyUSA poll, the most recent one of which I know.
Of that 54%, many probably will vote Democratic for president no matter what and many others probably don't have a strong enough affinity for Strickland that his presence of the ticket would override their feelings about the presidential nominees. So it's not clear how much Strickland could help Obama.
Then again, John Kerry would have been elected president if he'd snatched away 1.06% of President Bush's vote in Ohio, so if Strickland could help Obama just a little, he might be helping the Illinois senator quite a lot.
posted by Josh Goodman
Even as someone who has grown numb to the democratic disservice of uncontested elections, I still find these stats about the Arkansas legislature to be remarkable. From the Arkansas News Bureau:
So, before a single state primary vote was cast - early voting began Monday - Democrats were assured a House majority with 51 unopposed candidates, with House Republicans garnering 12 seats the easy way, about half way to at least maintaining the 25 House seats they currently hold.
Thirteen of the 18 Senate seats up for election this year were uncontested, giving eight Democrats and five Republicans a clear path to office.
Overall, 76 of the 118 seats up for election are uncontested, about 65 percent.
The article also notes that it isn't just incumbents who are getting free rides. A dozen candidates running for open seats have no opponents too.
posted by Josh Goodman
In his latest gubernatorial race roundup, Lou Jacobson wonders whether a change in Washington election law will hurt Gov. Christine Gregoire:
In Washington state, Dino Rossi (R) who lost in 2004 to Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) by 133 votes after two recounts, is running again, and over the past few months, he’s been gaining ground. According to the independent Elway Poll, Rossi reduced her lead from 13 points in January to five points in April, and in the latter poll, he won independents, 39 percent to 35 percent.
Both candidates will be well-funded — the race could break state fundraising records by the time it’s over. But while Gregoire is playing up her ability to deliver effective governance, she continues to have problems in connecting with voters personally.
Running in a presidential year in this Democratic-leaning state helps Gregoire, especially given the surge in Democratic registration caused by the presidential contest. But that could be neutralized by the Supreme Court’s imposition of a top-two, “Louisiana-style” voting system, where the two candidates with the most votes get to run for office, regardless of their party affiliation. That will keep the Libertarian Party, which has shaved a few percentage points from GOP totals in recent elections, out of the final round.
posted by Josh Goodman
I received an interesting comment on post about a possible open-seat gubernatorial race in Connecticut in 2010:
Imagine if Lieberman had not run for Senate as independent- he would have been front-runner for governor. Instead he's out of work after 2012.
Look for a killer Democratic primary between Sec. of State Susan Bysiewicz, Attorney Gen. Richard Blumenthal, Stamford mayor Dan Malloy, state Senate majority leader James Amman, and probably more.
And then the election itself could be a killer. Whatever Dem. vs. someone like Rob Simmons, or perhaps Chris Shays if he is kicked out of office this year. Should be fun.
Simmons is a former Republican congressman who lost his seat by 91 votes in 2006. Shays is the only Republican member of the U.S. House of Representatives in New England, which is why he might be looking for a new job in 2010.
Blumenthal is that politician who is always rumored as a candidate for major statewide office, but never runs. Illinois Republicans have Jim Edgar, New Jersey Republicans have Tom Kean Sr., Florida Democrats have Bob Butterworth and Connecticut Democrats have Richard Blumenthal.
If Blumenthal doesn''t take a stab at an open gubernatorial seat, I think we could safely assume once and for all that he is never running for anything.
posted by Josh Goodman
The Dallas Morning News reports on local election results in Texas:
Tim O'Hare, who made a name leading Farmers Branch's efforts to drive out illegal immigrants, was elected mayor of the Dallas County suburb Saturday.
Meanwhile, incumbent mayors and city council members beat challengers who wanted more immigration enforcement in Irving – where campaigns were highly heated and often personal.
...
But Irving's incumbents – Mayor Herbert A. Gears and council members Allan E. Meagher and Rose Cannaday – successfully fought off their opponents to win re-election Saturday. The winners supported the city's means of combating illegal immigration, but were opposed by two candidates who wanted the city to do more and two who wanted it to soften its approach
posted by Josh Goodman
Farmer's Branch, Texas, a suburb of Dallas, is home to one of the more novel attempts by a locality to crack down on illegal immigrants. Last year, the city approved a rule that requires landlords to verify that their tenants are in the U.S. legally. The ordinance is currently being held up in court.
Tomorrow, the author of that rule, Tim O'Hare, will square off in the Farmer's Branch mayoral race with Gene Bledsoe, whose supporters include the local apartment association and other critics of the ordinance. So, consider this one small test of the salience of immigration as a campaign issue.
posted by Josh Goodman
The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza lists a pair of governors as the most likely running mates for John McCain and Barack Obama.
For McCain it's Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty:
So Tpaw and McCain had something of a disagreement over the cause of last year's bridge collapse in Minnesota. The Minnesota governor remains the candidate in the Republican vice presidential field who fits best with what McCain wants and needs in a VP. Pawlenty has been elected twice in a Democratic-leaning state that is almost certain to be a battleground in the fall. He is liked and respected by both conservatives and moderates and gets rave reviews for his political instincts. He has also known McCain for nearly three decades and has been a supporter since the early days of the contest.
For Obama it's Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius:
The second-term Kansas governor earns the top spot on the Line because of her ability to further bolster Obama's strengths while not exacerbating his weaknesses. Picking Sebelius would affirm Obama's core message of change and would give Obama's run even more historic weight. Sebelius' electoral success in ruby red Kansas would also echo Obama's pledge to broaden the playing field in the fall and ensure that the party is competitive in every state. The one knock on Sebelius is the dearth of foreign policy credentials on her resume. But she has six years of strong executive experience and could be the kind of political partner Obama needs in the fall.
Other governors, including Charlie Crist, Tim Kaine and Ted Strickland, also earned a spot on Cillizza's list.
posted by Josh Goodman
The 2008 Missouri gubernatorial race is looking a lot like the 1972 U.S. presidential race: Nixon in a landslide.
Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon has built a 51%-35% lead over each of his two Republican opponents, according to a new Rasmussen poll.
There's been some talk of a "unity bounce" once the Democratic primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is finally resolved -- the former supporters of the loser will then be more likely to voice support for the winner, leading the general election poll numbers of the winner to go up.
I expect the same dynamic to benefit the Republicans in Missouri after the August 5 primary between Kenny Hulshof and Sarah Steelman, but, nonetheless, Nixon is the clear favorite.
posted by Josh Goodman
The Thicket has taken a look at Tuesday's legislative primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. I thought this was interesting:
After two days of searching I found a report in the blog, taking down words, that Rep. John Ulmer (R) was the only incumbent legislator who lost in Indiana. Four Republican senators (including NCSL stalwart Beverly Gard) who had unusual primary challenges based on their roles in property tax legislation won easily.
Last year, a property tax uprising toppled several local officials in Indiana, including Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson (in an absolute shocker). Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels has championed property tax cuts, which will be a centerpiece of his reelection campaign this year.
Do these legislative results show that the issue is losing salience? I don't know enough to say.
posted by Josh Goodman
From a partisan's perspective, the perfect politician is someone who loyally upholds the party line on issues, but still manages to win support from independents and members of the opposition. That description fits Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, which is why she would be a logical running mate for Barack Obama.
A couple of years ago, I was writing a feature on Democratic governors in Republican states and vice versa. I called up Joe Aistrup, a political scientist at Kansas State University, and asked, "Sebelius is a moderate, right?" He replied: "She's governed left of center."
Wait, the Democratic governor of Kansas, an iconically social conservative state, is left of center? It's true, and here's my favorite example to prove it.
Last year, Democrats in the U.S. Congress fretted over whether to include gender identity in a bill to ban discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. Ultimately, the provision was removed because gender identity was considered a poison pill -- controversial enough that it would have doomed the entire bill to failure.
Last year in Kansas, Sebelius issued an executive order to ban discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity. Sebelius' order only applied to state government employment (that's all she could do without legislation), but the fact remains that she acted on transgender rights, a topic Congress wouldn't dare touch.
That isn't really atypical for Sebelius.
Continue reading "What's the Matter with Kathleen Sebelius?" »
posted by Josh Goodman
The Associated Press suggests the possibility that local officials in Lake County, Indiana, wanted the credit if their votes pushed Barack Obama to victory:
GARY, Ind. (AP) — It was midnight and the nation was watching Lake County, still waiting for results in one of the biggest remaining prizes of the epic Democratic presidential battle between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.
But as the clock ticked, the questions and accusations grew louder: What was wrong in Lake County? Was this more politics as usual in the county at Lake Michigan's southern tip often seen as an extension of Chicago-style corruption?
A day after Clinton eked out a narrow victory in Indiana's primary, no allegations of illegal activities were being raised. But some say old-school politics were at play in the state's second-largest county.
"They wanted to put Barack Obama over the top with Lake County's vote and games were being played like in the 1950s," said Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott, who endorsed Clinton. "It went bad when a lot of people were watching."
(Hat tip: Election Law Blog)
posted by Josh Goodman
First Read asks a great question:
What if Florida had stayed on the March 4 primary day and she [Hillary] won Florida, Ohio and Texas all on the same night?
Only Democrats in South Dakota and Montana (the June 3 states) might end up with less influence over their party's presidential nominee than those in Florida and Michigan. So why don't I think that state lawmakers will rush to move their primaries back to March and April for 2012?
posted by Josh Goodman
Could Barack Obama increase African-American turnout to the point that he would win normally Republican Southern states? I looked at that question a few weeks ago with regard to Georgia and concluded that, even with the candidacy of Bob Barr (a former Georgia Republican congressman running as a Libertarian), the answer was probably not. A commenter, Sims2798, dissented:
That comment got me wondering what exactly it would take for Obama to win Georgia.
posted by Josh Goodman
The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza calls North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley a "loser" this morning, but it sounds less harsh in a winners and losers column:
The North Carolina governor's decision to endorse Clinton was seen as a potential turning point in the race. Or not. Obama hammered Clinton in the Tarheel State, and Easley, who will be looking for a job when his second term expires later this year, did himself no favors in positioning for a possible Obama cabinet. (On a more positive note, Easley's heir apparent -- Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue -- claimed a solid win in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.)
My take is that gubernatorial endorsements haven't mattered much throughout the presidential primaries. Perhaps you could argue that Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell was an exception.
posted by Alan Greenblatt
Rush Limbaugh, recalling the honor of meeting Antonio Villaraigosa:
"I shook [Clinton's] hand, he left, comes back [with] the mayor of Los Angeles," he told listeners. "I thought it was a Secret Service agent, maybe a shoeshine guy. Turns out he gives me his card, I said, 'Oh, my gosh, it's the mayor of Los Angeles.'" [emphasis added]
posted by Josh Goodman
Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell sounds as though she's seriously thinking about passing on a 2010 reelection bid, a move that would give Democrats a good chance to win their first gubernatorial race in the Nutmeg State since 1986. From the New York Times:
BEFORE Gov. M. Jodi Rell decides whether to run for another term in 2010, she wants to see what happens in November’s state and national elections, she said in a recent interview.
Mrs. Rell, a Republican, said the outcome of the fall elections was important because she wants to know whether she will once again be confronted with an “overwhelming number” of Democrats in the General Assembly who could override her policies, and whether the next president will be someone “who understands states’ rights.”
“Are we going to be fighting every single battle for the next four years?” she wondered as she sat at a table in front of a fireplace in her second-floor office in the State Capitol. “I think it gives you pause.”
posted by Josh Goodman
After months of fretting, it looks like Delaware Republicans finally have persuaded 2004 candidate Bill Lee to be their party's nominee for governor once again. I say "looks like" because Lee hasn't quite announced his candidacy yet, as the News Journal reports:
He has not said yes and he has not said no, but retired Superior Court Judge Bill Lee -- drafted Saturday as the Republican Party's nominee for governor -- did say he would "proceed toward running" for the office.
That means he will set up an exploratory committee, a committee to raise funds, generally start building a campaign team and see if things click.
Lee, 72, of Rehoboth Beach, was in Florida vacationing with family when state Senate Minority Leader Charles Copeland nominated him to run for the state's top elected office. Eighty percent of the convention delegates -- 250 in all -- liked the idea, snubbing Hockessin pilot Mike Protack as they had in his U.S. Senate bid in 2006 and his gubernatorial bid in 2004, and completely ignoring state employee Dave Graham of Kenton, who had paid the $5,300 filing fee but had nary a soul to put his name into the mix.
"I just came home and my world is upside down," Lee said Monday. "It's very gratifying. It's exciting. I want to do it, and now we'll proceed."
I've compared Lee to Hamlet, but perhaps he was just trying to create a Washingtonian reluctant-politician persona.
posted by Alan Greenblatt
Just after midnight, the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Indiana is too close to call. In fact, it's tied.
With 88 percent of the vote in, Jill Long Thompson, a state senator and former member of Congress, and architect Jim Schellinger each have 50 percent of the vote.
Many Democratic heavyweights threw their lot in early with Schellinger, more politically active and better connected than your average architect. But Long Thompson has always had superior name recognition. She is one of those candidates who seems to be on some ballot every election, which is why some Democrats were hoping for a fresher face to go up against Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels.
At any rate, they're tied up as of now.
Yes, Obama can win Georgia. Blacks will be a much higher percent of the electorate than they were in 2004.
When 30% of a state's electorate is blacks who vote for Obama, he must win 29% of everybody else to win that state:
McCain: 49.7%
Obama: 50.3%
Blacks for Obama (30%): 0%, 100%
Everybody else (70%): 71%, 29%
When 35% of a state's electorate is blacks who vote for Obama, he must win 24% of everybody else to win that state:
McCain: 49.4%
Obama: 50.6%
Blacks for Obama (35%): 0%, 100%
Everybody else (65%): 76%, 24%