GOP Running Out of Options

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Remember the main dynamic of the GOP presidential primary season in 2007-08? It was like musical chairs. One candidate after another would emerge as the new frontrunner -- McCain, Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Romney, Huckabee ♠-- before being rejected as not conservative enough or not willing to work hard enough.

Eventually, the party settled on McCain -- someone that more than half the GOP electorate thought was a party apostate or at least too moderate on a variety of issues. When he lost, party faithful were able to blame Obama's victory on their candidate not being conservative enough -- the same mantra they adopted in the wake of losing Congress in 2006.

Ever since, there's been this continuing comedy in which the party expends more energy chasing away people who are not conservative enough, rather than reaching out to new voters.

Anyway, long before the 2012 election gets underway, the party's prospects are quickly imploding, one by one:

Bobby Jindal -- can't hit the big league pitching
John Ensign -- adultery
Mark Sanford -- adultery/idiocy
Sarah Palin -- quitter, with of course rumors that more scandals are about to break

The other hopefuls are starting too look like retreads. Mitt Romney is still Mormon (that's the conventional wisdom on why Iowa and New Hampshire turned against him) and Mike Huckabee is still too limited in his appeal. And then you get to people like Newt Gingrich.

In a sense, none of this may matter. 2008 was the Republicans' year to lose, because of the economy and Iraq and all the rest of George Bush's troubled legacy. I expect that 2012 will be equally troublesome, even if Obama's glow fades considerably. He bought into the politico-economic market so low, people are bound to feel "better off than they were four years ago."

All that could change, obviously. And Republicans need a champion they can embrace, to take advantage of Obama faltering. But they may need one even more if they are bound to lose. Perhaps especially if they are bound to lose.

50 States, 50 Stories -- 2009 Edition

posted by Josh Goodman

In celebration of the United STATES of America, here's a thought about politics in all 50 states. For a blast from the past, check out last year's edition. Enjoy the holiday!

Alabama -- The 2010 landscape lost a great Southern name when Sue Bell Cobb, the Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, announced she's not running for governor. Under Alabama law, she would have had to resign to run, which is probably why she opted to stay put -- much to the relief of Democrats, who value her as their lone representative on the court.

Alaska -- Alaska politics is frozen as everyone waits for Gov. Sarah Palin to decide whether she wants to seek reelection. But, the news that Ethan Berkowitz, one of the top Democratic politicos in the state, is plotting a gubernatorial run tells me that people in the know think Palin isn't running again.

Arizona -- Gov. Jan Brewer wants a sales tax increase and some polling shows that the public is on her side. Arizonans, strangely, are more willing to accept tax increases right now than Californians.

Arkansas -- Gov. Mike Beebe has had a charmed tenure as governor, mainly because he's so good at charming state legislators, but scandals coming out of the prisons system are giving him a few headaches.

California -- Since Antonio Villaraigosa stepped aside, isn't there room for someone else in the Democratic primary for governor? Currently, Jerry Brown is the favorite in both the primary and the general election, but he and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom seem beatable enough that a Democratic congressman, state official or random rich guy might think he or she has a chance.

In California's Budget Crisis, a Political Rorschach Test

posted by Josh Goodman

As California drowns in a sea of red ink, its budget problems are serving as a political inkblot test.

Why does California have a $26 billion hole in its budget that has placed it on the brink of default? Why are its finances in such bad shape that it went begging to Congress and the Obama administration for loan guarantees, a manner of bailout, to save it? Democrats and Republicans have different explanations -- explanations that just happen to support their preexisting notions about the size of government.

California, you see, is either paralyzed by anti-tax ideologues or a cautionary tale as to what happens when tax-and-spend liberals run wild.

Palin's Profile

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Todd Purdum has published a lengthy piece on Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin -- "the sexiest and riskiest brand in the Republican Party" -- in Vanity Fair. The profile hits all the expected points -- the governor's apparent opportunism, Levi and Bristol, Wayne Andrew Ross, hesitant back-biting from former McCain campaign aides.

Update: Palin didn't talk to Purdum, but here's her interview with Runner's World.

The Vanity Fair piece has already triggered a food fight among prominent Republicans, including columnist Bill Kristol and former McCain adviser Steve Schmidt.

Palin watchers will want to read the whole thing but there are a couple of interesting nuggets to extract.

Albany's Latest Joke: A Senator Walks Into the Chamber...

posted by Josh Goodman

Mark Sanford should resign as governor of South Carolina in exchange for an appointment to be president of the New York Senate. That way, everything that is bizarre, surreal and dysfunctional in state government right now (well, everything other than the entire state of California) would be concentrated in one place. The New York Times has the latest news of the weird from Albany:

Shortly before noon on Tuesday, as Democrats prepared to convene what they expected to be another fruitless one-party session, they saw Frank Padavan, a Queens Republican, walk through the rear of the chamber.

Mr. Padavan would later say he had simply been taking a shortcut to the members’ lounge to grab a cup of coffee. But to the 31 Democrats in the chamber, that did not matter. Claiming that Mr. Padavan’s brief presence gave them the 32-member quorum required to gavel the Senate into session, Democrats began ramming through dozens of measures, including sales tax extensions and bond authorizations that were set to expire at midnight.

By the time the Democrats adjourned, Mr. Padavan’s coffee run had thrust the Capitol into a new round of recriminations and legal debate. Democrats insisted that the bills had been lawfully passed, Republicans denounced the session as fraudulent and inappropriate, and Gov. David A. Paterson suggested that he would not sign the bills into law.

Democrat Holds State House Seat in Mississippi

posted by Josh Goodman

In a special election, Democrat Wilber Jones easily won the Mississippi House of Representatives' District 82. The Meridian Star's twitter feed has the numbers:

100 percent of precincts reporting - Jones: 1568, Marcy: 816

And the percentages:

That's 65.74 % of the vote for Jones, 34.21 % for Marcy. This count includes all electronic votes but does not include absentee votes.

As I mentioned earlier, the dynamic here was an African-American Republican trying to pull an upset in a Democratic, majority-black district. But, as was true in 2006 for Ken Blackwell (Ohio governor), Lynn Swann (Pennsylvania governor) and Michael Steele (Maryland Senate), running a black candidate didn't win Republicans black votes in big numbers.

If Republicans are ever going to make gains with African-American voters, having African-American candidates is probably a necessary condition -- but clearly not a sufficient one.

A Black Republican in the Mississippi House?

posted by Josh Goodman

Democrats seem likely to hold a seat in the Mississippi House of Representatives in a special election today, but if the Republican does win, he'll be making history.

The seat is House District 82, where long-time legislator Charles Young, an African-American Democrat, died earlier this year.

There a couple reasons for Republicans to have a glimmer of optimism in this majority-minority seat. One is that Mississippi has a strange rule where special election ballots don't list the party affiliations of candidates, which may slightly reduce the Democrats' natural edge. The other is that the Republican candidate is an African-American, Bill Marcy. Marcy, interestingly, is a former Chicago cop, though his family has roots in Mississippi.

Court Rules for Franken

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Possibly ending the longest-running recount battle in memory, the Minnesota Supreme Court has ruled unanimously in favor of Democrat Al Franken in what looks to be the last legal challenge brought by Republican Norm Coleman in their U.S. Senate dispute.

Here's the ruling.

Update: Coleman concedes.

Even though we've had oh so many months to get used to the idea, it's still going to be hard to wrap my head around "Senator Al Franken."

Where the Democrats' Gubernatorial Talent Went

posted by Josh Goodman

I wrote a post last week arguing that the Democrats currently have far fewer governors who look like future presidential candidates than the Republicans. Commenter David C. Eisen made a good point in response:

Also don't forget that two top Dem Govs are now part of Obama's cabinet (Janet Napolitano of Arizona and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas). They would have likely been in the top 5.

In addition to Napolitano and Sebelius, Tom Vilsack is another former governor in President Obama's cabinet who seems to have national ambitions. Sen. Mark Warner, a former Virginia governor, would be a top candidate. Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana is also a former governor who is always mentioned, although I've come to the conclusion that he is the Richard Blumenthal of presidential candidates.

Keep the Noise Down at Fundraisers

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Officers from the San Diego County sheriff's department busted up a Democratic congressional candidate's fundraiser Friday, in response to a noise complaint from a neighbor.

The San Diego Union Tribune story doesn't give much sense of the department's side of the story, but suggests heavily that excessive force may have been used. The department responded with eight patrol cars and a helicopter.

“He was pepper-spraying the faces of anyone who tried to talk to him,” Busby said. “People were stunned. It was something that none of us has experienced.”

In her statement, Barman said she asked the deputy why he needed her birth date, because he knew her name and where she lived.

“He told me I was under arrest, grabbed my right arm, twisted it behind me and threw me on the ground,” she said.

When Stratton asked the deputy to be careful because Barman had shoulder surgery recently, the deputy “knocked her to the ground,” Barman said.

Hat tip: TPM

The Origins of the New York Senate Stalemate

posted by Josh Goodman

The New York Senate remains stymied, with Democrats and Republicans fighting over who controls the chamber. Who is to blame for the 31-31 tie that has paralyzed Albany?

That's easy: The Republicans.

Rudy Officially on the Fence

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani says today maybe he will and maybe he won't run for governor next year.

“I don’t know if I’m at the point of seriously considering it,” he said. “It’s a little too early.”

Politico helpfully points out that early polling shows Giuliani crushing Gov. David Paterson but getting stomped by state AG Andrew Cuomo.

Giving an early indication of the kind of media reception he can expect, Katie Connolly uses her Newsweek blog post on this non-announcement to rehearse Giuliani's marital sins and disastrous presidential run before shruggingly writing that these will likely be a non-factor for New York voters.

Rhode Island's Name Game

posted by Josh Goodman

Soon, Rhode Island may be named Rhode Island. The Providence Journal explains:

PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- Voters will consider in 2010 a proposal to drop "Providence Plantations," the controversial phrase conjuring up for many images of Rhode Island's role in the slave trade, from the state name.

The full Senate on Friday approved adding a referendum on the November 2010 ballot asking voters whether they are willing to change Rhode Island's formal name from "State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations" to simply "Rhode Island."

...

Proponents of the name change say that the word "plantations" is offensive to the African-American community because it conjures up images of slavery.

...

But opponents say that the full name is rooted deeply in the state's history. "Rhode Island and Providence Plantations" represents the merging of two colonies that now make up the nation's smallest state.

Bauer Benefits If Sanford Stays?

posted by Josh Goodman

The conventional wisdom is that South Carolina Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer's chances of being elected governor in 2010 will increase if Bauer becomes governor in 2009. If Mark Sanford resigns, the power of incumbency will give Bauer the advantage in an election in which he is currently just one of four credible Republicans who are running.

In fact, the conventional wisdom is that this very dynamic makes it more likely that Sanford will stay in office. The benefit to Bauer would be so great that supporters of rival Republicans are reluctant to push for Sanford's removal.

In that context, Brad Warthen presents some unconventional wisdom:

The Governors Most Likely to Be Elected President

posted by Josh Goodman

In the wake of the Mark Sanford scandal, Ken Rudin of NPR had a fun idea: Rank all of the nation's Republican governors from most likely to least likely to ever become president. Here's Rudin's list:

1. Tim Pawlenty (MN)
2. Jon Huntsman (UT)
3. Haley Barbour (MS)
4. Bobby Jindal (LA)
5. Charlie Crist (FL)
6. Mitch Daniels (IN)
7. Sarah Palin (AK)
8. Rick Perry (TX)
9. Mark Sanford (SC)
10. Jodi Rell (CT)
11. Bob Riley (AL)
12. Sonny Perdue (GA)
13. Mike Rounds (SD)
14. John Hoeven (ND)
15. Butch Otter (ID)
16. Dave Heineman (NE)
17. Jim Douglas (VT)
18. Don Carcieri (RI)
19. Linda Lingle (HI)
20. Jan Brewer (AZ)
21. Arnold Schwarzenegger (CA)
22. Jim Gibbons (NV)

(Hat tip: Political Wire)

I think this is a pretty good list, although I do have some quibbles with it. Bobby Jindal, who is young enough that he could run for president in 2040 and be younger than John McCain was in 2008, should be higher. He should definitely be higher than Haley Barbour, a former lobbyist who is probably too conservative for the country.

Sarah Palin may seem too low on Rudin's list, but she isn't. Jodi Rell is probably too high -- she's too moderate for the Republican Party. Mark Sanford is too high and Jan Brewer is too low. The female governor of a swing state doesn't have at least some chance of being on a presidential ticket in 2012?

Anyways, this idea was so much fun that I decided to do it for the Democrats. That way, you can quibble with me.

Chris Christie's Ashcroft Connection

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Chris Christie, the Republican nominee to take on New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine this fall, appeared before a congressional subcommittee yesterday to answer charges stemming from his handling of contracts as U.S. attorney.

The contracts are already a familiar part of New Jersey political debate. Since Christie's hopes rest largely on his record of putting away more than 100 corrupt politicians, questioning his own ethics will be central to Corzine's strategy.

The congressional questioning, then, ran not surprisingly strictly along partisan lines, with Democrats complaining and Republicans defending. After the hearing, Christie told reporters:

"It's a political circus, and it's unfortunate that they're using the money of the taxpayers of the United States to perform this kind of political circus, but out of respect for the Congress, I came down here and I testified, and I testified forthrightly," Christie said.

Christie granted a monitoring contract worth upwards of $50 million to John Ashcroft, the former U.S. attorney general. The New York Times:

He also found himself on the defensive over newly released e-mail messages indicating that he refused to intervene on behalf of a company that had objected to the high fees Mr. Ashcroft’s firm was charging, including $750,000 a month solely to pay Mr. Ashcroft and two other executives.

He defended his decision to give a monitor contract to a former federal prosecutor, David Kelley, who had decided two years earlier not to seek charges against Todd Christie, Mr. Christie’s brother, who had been accused of securities fraud.

“My brother committed no wrongdoing,” Mr. Christie said, pointing out that neither the Department of Justice nor the Securities and Exchange Commission decided to pursue a case against him.

In Kansas, Governor Anonymous

posted by Josh Goodman

Quick quiz: Who is the governor of Kansas?

The Case for Sanford Staying

posted by Josh Goodman

Over at Governing's other blog (or is Ballot Box the other blog?), Alan Greenblatt lays out a thoughtful case for Mark Sanford remaining governor of South Carolina.

Former Sanford Spokesman Calls for His Resignation

posted by Josh Goodman

One of the websites I've been checking regularly over the last 24-plus hours is fitsnews.com. The site was founded by Will Folks, a former Mark Sanford spokesman, and blends reporting, conservative commentary and irreverence.

Today, Folks has an interesting, lengthy post on his reactions to the scandal, including a call for the governor to resign:

But just as Republicans’ fiscal recklessness at the national level turned America over to the “Obama wave,” the consequences of Sanford’s personally imprudent actions in this case would seem to dictate another unfortunate trajectory for the cause of common sense government - and the very fiscal conservatism that Sanford has devoted his political career to advancing.

...

By his own conduct, the governor has given his enemies just enough rope to hang him - which is why it’s time to cop a plea before the deafening drumbeat for a public, political execution begins.

No man is bigger than a movement, and as much as it pains me to say it the best thing Mark Sanford can do for the reform movement in South Carolina right now is to step down.

Sanford's Popularity Problem (Updated)

posted by Josh Goodman

I say this after every scandal, but, since it's still true, I'll say it again: Whether a politician survives or not has as much to do with his or her popularity prior to the incident as it does with the seriousness of the misconduct itself. For Mark Sanford, that's bad news.

For most of his term as governor, Sanford has been disliked by state legislators and other South Carolina political insiders. Despite that, and despite the state's unusually high unemployment rate (even before the current recession), Sanford generally stayed in the good graces of the state's conservative voters.

That appears to have changed this spring, however, as the economy suffered and Sanford made his stand against accepting the stimulus. Here's a Charlotte Observer article from April:

S.C. voters are unhappy about his stance. A recent poll by Crantford and Associates, an established firm in Columbia, surveyed 1,382 S.C. voters and found the once-popular Sanford's favorable rating had dropped to 40 percent, with 53 unfavorable. In contrast, President Obama rated 49 percent favorable and 44 percent unfavorable. More important for Republicans, 54 percent of the key swing voters who identified as independents viewed the governor unfavorably, and 56 percent disagreed with his position on the stimulus money.

What this means is that there isn't a reservoir of good will for Sanford that will offer him protection now. It's been clear for a few years that the legislature would like to get rid of Sanford. If legislators find grounds for impeachment, they won't have to worry too much about the people of South Carolina not wanting to see the governor leave.

Update: You don't have to take my word for it that South Carolinians have soured on Sanford. We now have two instant polls showing that at least half of South Carolina adults want him to resign. SurveyUSA puts the number at 60%, while InsiderAdvantage puts it at 50%.

Those numbers should be viewed as a preliminary snapshot. Depending on the details that emerge in the days ahead, anger at Sanford could grow or it could recede. For now, though, the governor is in quite a weak spot.

Jakey Knotts Triumphs Over Mark Sanford

posted by Josh Goodman

When Columbia, South Carolina's newspaper, the State, first broke the story that Gov. Mark Sanford was missing, they only had one on-the-record source: State Sen. Jake Knotts. Knotts has been a consistent voice in this story, asking questions and demanding answers. So who is he?

The first thing that you should know about South Carolina Sen. John M. Knotts Jr. is that most people who know him don't call him John or even, so far as I can tell, Jake. Instead, he's Jakey Knotts, which is the most folksy South Carolina political nickname this side of Tumpy Campbell.

As you might guess of someone who goes by Jakey, Knotts is an old-school politician. He jealously guards his constituents and the prerogatives of the legislature. He doesn't have much interest in ideological battles.

This has placed Knotts into direct conflict with Sanford, his fellow Republican. Knotts was elected to the state Senate in 2002, the same year Sanford was elected governor. They've been feuding for years.

Haley Erases Sanford

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer helped push the "Where's Sanford" story along, letting it be known that he was indignant that he hadn't been informed that the governor had left the state and that he hadn't been put in charge.

Bauer wants to win the top job next year (or sooner) and clearly chafed at the fact that Sanford had all but endorsed a rival, state Rep. Nikki Haley, calling her a "terrific and inspiring choice."

Haley today removed that quote and Sanford's picture from her campaign Web site.

In South Carolina, Enter Governor Bauer?

posted by Josh Goodman

This morning, some foolish people were still talking about South Carolina Mark Sanford as a presidential candidate. This afternoon, the question is whether he will remain governor.

Obviously, having an extramarital affair is not an impeachable offense. But, leaving the state without informing the lieutenant governor might be one. Even before the affair became public, some members of the South Carolina legislature were talking about impeachment, as the Southern Political Report noted:

Southern Political Report has learned from well-placed sources that some members of the South Carolina legislature are considering an effort to impeach Gov. Mark Sanford after revelations that he spent nearly a week in Argentina without disclosing where he was or providing means of communication.

The South Carolina Constitution is broad in its description of the duties of the governor and under what circumstances impeachment may be considered. The most likely scenario would fall under the Constitution's provision that a governor may be impeached by the state House and then tried by the state Senate for removal from office if found guilty of  "serious crimes or serious misconduct in office."

This morning, I would have told you that the impeachment talk was implausible. However, one lesson from the Rod Blagojevich drama was that impeachment is as much a political process as it is a legal process. The political damage that Sanford has sustained from admitting his affair shouldn't have anything to do with whether he's impeached. But, it might make impeachment more likely.

The South Carolina legislature is controlled by Republicans, but many of these Republicans are Sanford's foes. He can't count on his party to stand with him.

There's one thing that might work in Sanford's favor, however: If Sanford is removed form office, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer would take over for him.

Sanford Admits Affair

posted by Josh Goodman

Now you can write Mark Sanford's political obituary. Gosh, I wish he would have told me he was having an affair before I wrote 800 words saying how he might still have a chance at the Republican presidential nomination.

Sanford: Additional Thoughts

posted by Josh Goodman

I should note that this remains a fast-moving situation -- everything I wrote below is predicated on there not being additional damaging revelations about what Gov. Sanford has been doing the last few days.

I think that Sanford won't be hurt if the governor is able to provide verification that he was in Argentina on a standard vacation. If his staff simply was operating on out-of-date information when they said he was hiking in the United States, then most Republicans will conclude that the media was making an Appalachian mountain out of a molehill. It also would help if he can demonstrate that there was a way for his staff to contact him in the event of an emergency.

On the other hand, if it turns out that he wasn't in Argentina (which some are suggesting) or that he was engaged in some sort of nefarious activity, even conservatives who don't trust the media will have to take notice.

We'll know more after the governor's press conference this afternoon.

Mark Sanford's Premature Political Obituary

posted by Josh Goodman

There is nothing better for a Republican presidential candidate than to appear to be persecuted by the media. Everyone seems to have forgotten that when it comes to South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford.

With the revelation this morning that Sanford's mysterious trip was to Argentina, not the Appalachian Trail, some observers already are expecting that Republican primary voters will tell the governor to take a hike in 2012. For example, take a look at Chuck Todd and friends at NBC and the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza. Or, take a look at what Brad Warthen, who for years was one of the best journalists in South Carolina (now he's an unemployed blogger), has to say:

One thing we DO know for sure is that this puts an absolute and welcome end, post paid and that’s all she wrote, on all the ridiculous, irresponsible, utterly moronic talk about Mark Sanford being presidential timber.

I think that's a bit premature. Democrats mistrust the mainstream media. Republicans trust that the mainstream media is lying to them. That perception of bias almost always colors Republican primary politics -- and it may come to Sanford's rescue.

Where's Sanford

posted by Alan Greenblatt

SC Gov. Mark Sanford will hold a must-see news conference at 2 pm.

I've been trying to keep on top of the twists and turns this story has taken over at our other blog, 13th Floor.

AL-GOV: What's Wrong With Davis and Sparks?

posted by Josh Goodman

Leading Alabama Democrats are working feverishly to recruit a top-tier candidate to enter next year's governor's race. That wouldn't be especially noteworthy, except for one thing: The party already has two top candidates running.

The Associated Press has the details. Democrats have courted state Sen. Roger Bedford (who said no), Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb and Charles Price, a circuit court judge.

Bedford, Cobb and Price all might be good candidates, but on paper they don't appear any stronger than U.S. Rep. Artur Davis and State Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks. Sparks won reelection in 2006 with 59% of the vote, making him the top Democratic vote-getter that year. Davis is widely considered one of the smartest people in Alabama politics and he's clearly prepared diligently for this statewide run.

Maybe Democrats are looking for an alternative to Davis because they don't think an African-American can win statewide in Alabama. But, that wouldn't explain why they are recruiting Price, another African-American. Nor would that explain why they wouldn't simply support Sparks.

It's possible that party leaders are looking elsewhere because they know that both Davis and Sparks have deep, dark secrets that in time will render them fundamentally flawed candidates. But, it's also possible that party leaders are feeling intimidated because Davis and Sparks are strong candidates -- who aren't beholden to the party's leaders.

Democratic Optimism in Utah

posted by Josh Goodman

You don't become a party leader by saying that your party is going to lose. In that context, I present a statement from the head of the Utah Democratic Party.

From the Salt Lake Tribune:

Democratic Party Chairman Wayne Holland struck a confident tone Saturday after being re-elected to a second term, predicting a Democrat will win the statehouse in 2010.

"I'm not sure which one it was, but I think our next governor was in this building today," Holland said.

It was a clear reference to Rep. Jim Matheson and Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon who spent much of their time at the Utah Democratic Convention at Murray High School tiptoeing around questions of whether they would run for governor in 2010. But neither ruled it out.

Corroon and Matheson are impressive candidates. Matheson's father was the last Democrat to be elected governor of the state. Still, I'm skeptical.

Yet Another Bailout

posted by Alan Greenblatt

The Supreme Court released its highly-anticipated decision in a voting rights case today. But the decision opens the door to further questions.

It its 8-1 decision, the Court ruled that a utility district can "bailout" of the Voting Rights Act's preapproval requirements when drawing new political lines. Overturning a lower court, it made clear that the legislation should allow for such bailouts, even by entities that don't register voters.

That narrow question aside, the Court sidestepped the "serious constitutional questions" that Chief Justice Roberts said the preapproval clearance process raises. It sounds like the Court's conservative majority is inviting a better test case to use to rule on the bigger questions. (The one no vote came from Clarence Thomas, who wanted the Court to rule on just those questions.)

Is Gay Marriage a Political Winner in New Jersey?

posted by Josh Goodman

Going into this year, New Jersey and Vermont seemed to me to be alone as states that might legalize gay marriage legislatively. New Jersey had a governor and legislative leaders who supported the idea, making passage of a gay marriage law appear likely.

Vermont did legalize gay marriage. More surprisingly, Maine and New Hampshire did too. New Jersey, however, hasn't acted.

I presumed the reason was that lawmakers were skittish about bringing up the topic is an election year. New Jersey's gubernatorial race is this year and legislative seats are up too.

Maybe that is the explanation. But, you'd never know it from listening to New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, as the Philadelphia Inquirer reports:

All's Fair in Love, War and Redistricting

posted by Josh Goodman

If you want to understand why state legislative districts end up so gerrymandered, this statement from a Tennessee legislator in the Chattanooga Times Free Press explains it:

Tennessee Republicans don't plan to pull any punches if they keep their majorities in the General Assembly and control redistricting legislative boundaries after the 2010 census.

"Now that we're drawing the lines, (Democrats) want to do it fair. We'll be just as fair to them as they've been to us," said State Rep. Gerald McCormick, R-Chattanooga.

Yes, gerrymandering is about increasing your own party's political power. But, quite often, it's also about getting some revenge.

Virginia Gets Some Competition

posted by Josh Goodman

For anyone who likes competitive elections, we have a promising development in Virginia. The Richmond Times-Dispatch explains:

The major political parties are competing for 58 House of Delegates seats this fall -- an increase from recent election cycles.

An unofficial tally by the Virginia Public Access Project shows 68 of the 100 seats will be contested, up from 41 in 2007 and 49 in 2005. But 10 of this year's contests involve a major-party candidate running against an independent. Independents generally have little chance of beating a major-party incumbent.

Whenever I hear about uncontested elections, I can't help but think about Florida's 16th congressional district. In late September 2006, just weeks before Election Day, the Mark Foley scandal broke in Florida 16. Even though the seat hadn't been a great pickup opportunity for Democrats, they had a reasonably strong candidate in self-funder Tim Mahoney. Foley resigned and Mahoney beat the Republican replacement. The lesson: Sometimes 90% of winning an election is showing up.

Republicans targeted Mahoney last year and it was a good thing they did. Mahoney's extramarital affair (and accompanying hush-money scandal) became public in October, just weeks before the election. He, of course, lost badly. For the lesson, see above.

Having lots of challengers for legislative seats is good for democracy, but it's also good for the parties putting up the challengers. Politicians embarrass themselves frequently enough that contesting seats that look unwinnable makes for smart politics. Virginia's political parties seem to be realizing that.

GA-GOV: John Oxendine, Outsider and Frontrunner

posted by Josh Goodman

The Republican primary for governor of Georgia wasn't making much sense to me, until I tried something that, according to the history books I've read, reporters used to do back in the 20th century: I called some people on the "tele-phone."

With Gov. Sonny Perdue term-limited, six candidates are running for the Republican nomination. It could have been more. Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, the early frontrunner, backed out because of health reasons.

Actually, it could have been less. Had Cagle stuck in the field, perhaps some of the other potential candidates would have decided the race wasn't worth running. For example, U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal jumped into the race a couple of weeks after Cagle backed out. Now, we have an amorphous contest in which four candidates appear to have a reasonable chance to win.

What the sources that I spoke with told me is that Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel is the establishment candidate. Handel used to work for Perdue and she appears to have his tacit support. However, State Sen. Eric Johnson has also done a good jumping winning the backing of some Perdue partisans, making him a second establishment candidate.

So is Handel or Johnson the current frontrunner?

VA-GOV: Tie Game

posted by Josh Goodman

I didn't quite trust the two recent polls that gave Democrat Creigh Deeds a lead over Republican Bob McDonnell in the Virginia governor's race. A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll giving McDonnell a one-point lead looks more realistic.

But Will the Mormons Bankroll Them?

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Opponents of Maine's new gay marriage law have hired the same PR firm that ran California's Proposition 8 last year to run their ballot campaign, AP reports.

Maine Freedom to Marry, which will fight the initiative, has hired Jesse Connolly to run their effort. Connolly, who will be taking a leave of absense as House Speaker Hannah Pingree's chief of staff, ran the 2005 campaign to retain Maine's gay rights law.

In New York, One Senator, Two Votes?

posted by Josh Goodman

The latest controversy in the battle for control of the New York State Senate seems orchestrated to dispel the notion that lieutenant governors don't do anything. As of this week, the Senate has 31 members that are loyal to the Democrats and 31 that will vote with the Republicans.

The absence of a lieutenant governor, following David Paterson's ascension to the governorship, suddenly is all-important. The New York Times explains:

Senator Pedro Espada Jr., the other Democrat who sided with Republicans and was elected as the new Senate president in last week’s overthrow, said on Wednesday that the State Constitution allowed him to cast two votes in the case of a tie: one as senator, and one as acting lieutenant governor, who is empowered by the Constitution to cast a vote in the event of a tie. (Because the lieutenant governor’s office is vacant, that office’s powers fall to the Senate president.)

The constitutional language in question is vague, and any such move would probably lead to litigation by Democrats.

Mr. Espada also said that should the Democrats not return to the chamber on Thursday, his two votes, added to 30 votes from Republican senators, would be sufficient to provide the legal equivalent of a quorum.

A few days ago, Elizabeth Benjamin of the New York Daily News reviewed some of the other legal theories out there. Here's one:

Others suggested that if the chamber's leadership was in question at the time of a tie, Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, who is next in line on the Capitol's power totem pole, might be able to cast the deciding vote.

And another:

Also being reviewed, as DN Capitol Bureau Chief Ken Lovett reported over the weekend: The possibility that Gov. David Paterson is still technically the LG, and thus still capable of casting a tie-breaking vote in the Senate. (Sen. Eric Schneiderman, who has been providing legal advice to the Democrats throughout the coup, is investigating this).

Personally, I think all of these potential acting lieutenant governors are lacking. Couldn't we get Andrew Cuomo to do this job? Maybe Caroline Kennedy? Or Sonia Sotomayor? Or Eliot Spitzer?

VA-GOV: Questionable Polling Gives Deeds the Edge

posted by Josh Goodman

Last week, Rasmussen Reports achieved a feat that has never before been accomplished in the history of mankind: The survey research firm produced a poll that not even I thought was worthy of discussion.

Rasmussen conducted a one-day survey of the Virginia governor's race the day after Creigh Deeds won the Democratic nomination. In other words, they asked voters who they were supporting on the same day that every newspaper in the state had a headline that said something to the effect of, "Deeds wins triumphant, incredible, smashing landslide!"

The poll gave Deeds a six-point lead, when every pre-primary poll had indicated that Republican Bob McDonnell had the edge. But, there was no way of knowing whether the electorate really had moved toward Deeds or whether he was just basking in the short-term afterglow of his primary victory. The poll, I thought, was pretty much worthless.

As you may have noticed, though, I'm discussing the poll right now, in this very blog post. I guess Rasmussen won't end up in the Guinness Book of World Records after all.

Backing the Conservative

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Jim DeMint, a Republican U.S. senator from South Carolina, held a news conference yesterday to endorse Marco Rubio, the former Florida House Speaker who is running against Gov. Charlie Crist in next year's Senate race.

Both Florida and national Republicans have lined up behind Crist, seeing him as the strongest candidate to hold the seat for the party. DeMint said that not only is Rubio more conservative, he believes Rubio can win.

Doubts About a California Bailout

posted by Josh Goodman

The Obama administration is skeptical of a California bailout, the Washington Post notes this morning in a front-page story:

The Obama administration has turned back pleas for emergency aid from one of the biggest remaining threats to the economy -- the state of California.

Top state officials have gone hat in hand to the administration, armed with dire warnings of a fast-approaching "fiscal meltdown" caused by a budget shortfall. Concern has grown inside the White House in recent weeks as California's fiscal condition has worsened, leading to high-level administration meetings. But federal officials are worried that a bailout of California would set off a cascade of demands from other states.

With an economy larger than Canada's or Brazil's, the state is too big to fail, California officials urge.

Why would the federal government be reluctant to bail out the Golden State, even as it has offered financial assistance to private companies?

Prop. 8, Hispanics and California's Next Gay Marriage Vote

posted by Josh Goodman

The debate last fall over whether California should ban gay marriage was heated. After Prop. 8 passed in November, the debate over why California decided to ban gay marriage has been just as hot.

What I'm referring to is the role of blacks and Hispanics in the passage of California's gay marriage ban. According to exit polling, 70% of African-Americans and 53% of Latinos supported Prop. 8.

Those stats led some, such as Sacramento Bee columnist Dan Walters, to say that minority voters were the key to the ballot measure's passage:

Proposition 8, in fact, garnered 1.6 million more votes than McCain received. And, it's apparent, many of those votes – enough to make the difference – came from African American and Latino voters drawn to the polls by Obamamania.

...

To put it another way, had Obama not been so popular and had voter turnout been more traditional – meaning the proportion of white voters had been higher – chances are fairly strong that Proposition 8 would have failed.

This proved to be a provocative, controversial thesis. Did racial and ethnic minorities really doom gay marriage in California?

WI-GOV: Doyle Trails?

posted by Josh Goodman

It looks like the pollsters will have to agree to disagree. Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle is in good shape for reelection says Research 2000. Not so, finds Public Policy Polling:

Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle has just a 34% approval rating, and trails two potential 2010 opponents in hypothetical contests.

Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker has a 48-40 lead over Doyle and former Congressman Mark Neumann has a 42-41 edge.

Doyle remains relatively popular within his own party, but meets with approval from just 6% of Republicans and also finds disapproval from 69% of independents. The difficulty with independents is unique to Doyle- a PPP release tomorrow looking at federal level politicians in Wisconsin finds Barack Obama, Russ Feingold, and Herb Kohl all finding approval from voters who don't identify with either major party.

New York Senate to Flip Again

posted by Alan Greenblatt

NY Times:

ALBANY — A week after Republicans wrested power of the State Senate away from Democrats, their thin majority appeared to collapse.

Senator Hiram Monserrate, one of two Democrats who initially sided with Republicans to give them a 32-to-30 majority, has switched his allegiances again and plans to reaffirm himself as a member of the Democratic caucus, two people close to Mr. Monserrate said on Monday morning.

...

If each side has 31 members, that means neither the Democrats or Republicans would have the 32 votes necessary to change the Senate’s leadership structure. Ordinarily the lieutenant governor would cast a tie-breaking vote, but that position has been vacant since Gov. David A. Paterson replaced Eliot Spitzer as governor in March 2008.

Mr. Monserrate’s move, which was first reported by The Daily News, puts all the more focus on a court hearing Monday in Albany, where a State Supreme Court justice is scheduled to decide whether the Republican takeover was legal. If the court rules that the new coalition — headed by Mr. Espada and Dean G. Skelos, a Republican from Long Island — is illegitimate, it could ultimately restore Democrats to power.

WI-GOV: Doyle Leads, We Think

posted by Josh Goodman

Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle has been in office for more than six years and for more than six years, it seems, he's stayed in a narrow range between being moderately popular and moderately unpopular. A new Research 2000/Daily Kos poll confirms that nothing has changed, but that Doyle is in a pretty strong position for reelection, should he decide to seek a third term:

Jim Doyle (D-inc)  48
Scott Walker (R)   36
Undecided          16

Jim Doyle (D-inc)  49
Mark Neumann (R)   35
Undecided          16

Jim Doyle (D-inc)  45
Tommy Thompson (R) 47
Undecided           8

Incumbent Gov. Jim Doyle has an unlovely 43-48 approval rating, yet he's still close to the 50% mark against his likeliest opponents, Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker and former WI-01 Rep. Mark Neumann. As is typical for candidates like Walker and Neumann this far out from election day, neither is terribly well known - half the sample has no opinion of Walker, while a third doesn't know Neumann.

Meanwhile, former Gov. Tommy Thompson remains pretty popular (54-36), but only holds Doyle to a dead heat.

The Tiananmen of Our Time

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Events in Iran are well outside the scope of this space, but as a political blog it's impossible not to note the election there Friday and the reaction to it since. Ahmedinejad's landslide win was clearly a fraud, triggering street protests throughout the weekend in Tehran of a scale not seen there in years.

As of this writing, the White House has issued no formal statements.

I've never heard a sitting government's reelection described as a coup before, but this one has all the trappings. Police are beating students and other protesters, including women. One hundred opposition figures have been detained. The Iranians arrested BBC journalists and confiscated their footage. Other foreign media outlets are being blocked from broadcasting. Text messaging, YouTube, Flickr and other peer to peer media have all been shut down within the country at various times.

As Sunday dragged on, protesters took to their cars as a safer means of angrily flooding the streets. Residents are also shouting from rootops. Protests continued into the night and have spread to other major cities throughout Iran.

As Nicholas Kristof notes, it's never wise to place bets against the state, with its superior firepower, at moments such as these, and the nation's religious oligarchy is digging in. Nationwide protests in 1999 and 2003, the New York Times points out, trailed off after a week.

But with Mousavi, the election's loser, calling for continued protests on Monday and a general strike on Tuesday, it's conceivable that these protests have taken on an unstoppable momentum. Zahra Rahnavard, Mousavi's wife, has announced they'll march in Tehran Monday at 4 pm local time.

There are reports that residents are leaving gates and doors unlocked, to offer escape and refuge to those fleeing from police beatings.

Worthwhile sites for following this story include the New York Times' Lede Blog, Andrew Sullivan and the Iranian-American site NIAC. You can find links to Iranian emails, Tweets, pictures and videos, along of course with links to other coverage. The site Tehran Bureau is also worth Googling -- it's been shut down from time to time, though.

Is the New York Senate Worth Controlling?

posted by Josh Goodman

While we wait for some clarity out of New York as to who will control the State Senate, here's a question: Is control of the Senate really worth winning?

To recap, the Democrats 32-30 majority was thrown into question on Monday when two members of their caucus, Hiram Monserrate and Pedro Espada, joined with Republicans to create a leadership coalition. Democrats are challenging the move in court, while Monserrate appears to be wavering on whether he is going to stick with the Republicans.

Controlling the Senate for the next year-and-a-half isn't irrelevant. But the exact effects of a (mostly) Republican takeover aren't clear. Some speculation suggests, for example, that gay marriage may actually be more likely to pass with Republicans in charge.

The real prize in New York is control of the Senate after the 2010 elections. That's when legislative redistricting will take place, likely determining whether Democrats will dominate the Senate for the next decade or whether the body will remain up for grabs, as it has in recent election cycles. If you doubt that redistricting can have such a large, lasting impact, look no further than the New York Assembly, where Democrats have more than twice as many seats as Republicans, thanks to a friendly map.

The Absurdity in New York, Part 2

posted by Josh Goodman

The situation in the New York Senate just keeps getting stranger. From the New York Times:

ALBANY — The coalition that joined two Democrats with 30 Republicans and took control of the State Senate earlier this week was in danger of collapsing on Thursday as one of the Democrats walked out of the Senate chamber, saying he needed more time to hold discussions with his colleagues.\

Hiram Monserrate, a Queens Democrat, held the Capitol in suspense as he refused to say whether he would support the coalition’s current leadership.

Mr. Monserrate’s absence from the chamber deprived Republicans of a quorum, forcing them to adjourn just a few minutes after they called the session to order. As he was walking out of the chamber, a Republican staff member followed him out and pleaded with him, saying, “Senator, we need you back in there.”

The Absurdity in New York

posted by Josh Goodman

If you're struggling to make sense of the Republican takeover of the New York Senate, I can help.

The first thing to understand is that both Republicans and Democrats are desperately trying to win the support of a man who was indicted on felony charges just a couple of months ago. From the New York Times this morning:

Underscoring the antic nature of the leadership struggle, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle spent the day courting Hiram Monserrate, a Queens Democrat, who was indicted in March on charges of assaulting his companion with a broken glass.

For now, Monserrate and fellow dissident Democrat Pedro Espada are sticking with the Republicans.

Creigh Deeds Gets "THE Call"

posted by Josh Goodman

I'm finding Creigh Deeds' twitter feed oddly addictive. The latest:

All you have to do is win a primary and the funniest things happen. Rep. Pelosi calls. Gov. Perdue calls. VP Biden calls. And THE call came

I imagine that Gov. Perdue refers to North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue, a Democrat, not Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue, a Republican. You can guess who "THE Call" was.

Of note: If Deeds received a call from Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer, he didn't mention it.

In Alabama, a Republican Win and a Preview of 2010

posted by Josh Goodman

Republicans bounced back in Alabama with a big win last night for state Senate, as the Huntsville Times notes:

First-time candidate Paul Sanford beat veteran state Rep. Laura Hall by 15 percentage points to fill the seat vacated by Parker Griffith, who was elected to Congress last

With 56 of 57 boxes reporting, Sanford got 57 percent (11,984 votes) to Hall's 42 percent (8,872 votes), a spread surprising even to the winner. A little more than twice the voters came out for the general election as did for the primary March 3.

For the G.O.P., this win softens the blow from a Democratic victory in another Alabama Senate seat last week. While it's worth noting that Hall was an African-American running in a district where most voters are white, that isn't necessarily why she lost.

The Times offers context in the article linked above:

Hall and several other state lawmakers were criticized for working for the two-year college system while at the same time accepting legislative pay. Hall is a retired teacher who, until last March, worked at Calhoun Community College.

When Republicans push to win control of the Alabama legislature in 2010, they'll try to cast themselves as the more ethical party. In one district and on one night, the message worked.