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March 07, 2008

A Friday Diversion

posted by Josh Goodman

Trying to avoid doing work this fine Friday? I highly recommend the do-it-yourself delegate predictors out there, such as the ones at Slate or Forbes. They're a great way to waste time and get a handle on The Math that will determine the Democratic presidential nominee.

After the jump, I'll show you what happened when I played the prediction game.

Wyoming: Obama 56%-44% -- Obama has dominated small Western caucus states. This time, though, the Clinton campaign is making more of an effort.

Mississippi: Obama 58%-42% -- A large African-American population helps Obama.

Pennsylvania: Clinton 55%-45% -- Everyone says Pennsylvania is demographically similar to Ohio, so maybe the result will be the same too.

Guam: 50%-50% -- I have no idea.

Indiana: Clinton 55%-45% -- Obama represents a bordering state, but on paper this looks like a Clinton state.

North Carolina: Obama 52%-48% -- A Southern state with a relatively small African-American population sounds like trouble for Obama, but North Carolina may have enough high-tech workers to carry him across the finish line.

West Virginia: Clinton 62%-38% -- Tons of white Democrats without college degrees is demographic bliss for Clinton.

Kentucky: Clinton 59%-41% -- Like West Virginia, except for Louisville.

Oregon: Obama 53%-47% -- Obama is strong in the West in states without large Hispanic populations.

Montana: Obama 56%-44% -- As Wyoming goes, so goes Montana.

South Dakota: Obama 56%-44% -- As Montana goes, so goes South Dakota.

Puerto Rico: Clinton 67%-33%. Will Puerto Ricans vote like Hispanics elsewhere? I have no clue.

If currently uncommitted superdelegates split evenly between Obama and Clinton, those predictions yield Obama 2032 delegates, seven more than he needs to win the nomination (according to Forbes). If Clinton does slightly better, we could be looking at John Edwards as kingmaker.

Now I'd better get back to work.


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