The Surrogatization of Ted Strickland

posted by Josh Goodman

When Ted Strickland sought the Ohio governorship in 2006, one of his big talking points against his Republican opponent, Ken Blackwell, was that Blackwell wanted to require everyone to buy health insurance.

For example, Strickland included this dialogue in one of his ads, as recorded by the Columbus Dispatch:

(Female): And while Ted Strickland has a plan to control the cost of health care --

(Male, as an image of Republican gubernatorial nominee J. Kenneth Blackwell comes into view): Ken Blackwell would force everyone to buy health insurance. That could cost an average Ohio family without coverage over $4,800 a year.

(Female): We can't afford much more of Ken Blackwell.

Today, Barack Obama is criticizing Hillary Clinton's health care plan, which includes a mandate on individuals, in very similar language to Strickland's ad. Here's what Obama's controversial mailer -- the one that prompted Clinton's "shame on you" speech -- says:

Hillary's health care plan forces everyone to buy insurance, even if you can't afford it. Is that the best we can do for families struggling with high health care costs?

Hillary's health care plan forces everyone to buy insurance, even if you can't afford it... and you pay a penalty if you don't.

So who was standing behind Hillary as she called the attacks misleading, awkwardly nodding along?

In NC, No Love for NYC

posted by Josh Goodman

Democrats are favored in the open North Carolina governor's race, but that might change if the Democratic primary between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and State Treasurer Richard Moore gets ugly. There are some signs that's happening over the issue of out-of-state fundraising. From the News & Observer:

Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue raised money in New York on Wednesday -- a move that brought howls and charges of hypocrisy from State Treasurer Richard Moore.

In the race for governor, Perdue has sharply criticized Moore because he has taken lots of money from New York donors, many of whom work for investment firms that do business with the state pension fund, which is managed by the treasurer's office. Perdue is a candidate from "Main Street," not "Wall Street," she has said.

The NGA Curse

posted by Josh Goodman

Here's a sentence I never thought I'd read: "Pawlenty's position as chairman of the National Governors Association may prove his undoing."

Bob Novak explains. My take on Pawlenty's vice presidential chances is here.

Florida Special Set

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Voters in the St. Petersburg area will be picking a new House member on March 25 to replace Frank Peterson, who resigned to run the state Department of Juvenile Justice.

Peterson is a Democrat, as are the four candidates who have so far launched their campaigns to succeed him. A general election will be held April 15, if anyone from another party bothers to make a go of it.

It won't be a pickup for the Dems but will continue a run of victories we noted the other day. Steve Bousquet of the St. Pete Times offers the details about that here.

Who Will Bloomberg Endorse?

posted by Josh Goodman

Imagine if Groundhog Day had the same running time as Gone with the Wind. That, in essence, was New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's presidential non-bid, in which he repeated over and over and over again that he was not a candidate.

Still, a couple of interesting things came out of Bloomberg's op-ed in the New York Times today, in which he repeated, again, that he's not running.

He said that he might endorse a candidate for president. He also clearly enunciated what he's looking for in a candidate (and what his campaign would have advocated had he sought the presidency).

From looking at what he wrote, I'd say there's a chance he endorses either McCain or Obama (or Clinton). At the very least, he wants to give the impression that he hasn't made up his mind.

Here's what he wrote:

Downward Mobility

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Matt Gonzalez, a former San Francisco supervisor who nearly pulled off a startling upset against Gavin Newsom in the mayoral race there five years ago, has found a more certain way to lose. He signed on today as Ralph Nader's presidential running mate.

"I have no illusions," Gonzalez said at the press conference at the National Press Club. "I've never entered a contest without some sense the contest can be won."

By the way, as long as I'm in cranky blogger mode, I would note that most press accounts of Nader's recent campaign announcement said that this is his third run for the presidency. Nader ran back in 1996 as well, but he didn't campaign and nobody cared since he had no effect on that race.

Meet the New Bass

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Karen Bass, a Los Angeles Democrat, is about to be the next speaker of the California Assembly:

Assemblywoman Karen Bass secured the votes to become the next speaker of the California Assembly late Wednesday, elevating an African American woman to the post for the first time in California history.

Bass, a 54-year-old Los Angeles Democrat, was the top lieutenant of outgoing Speaker Fabian Núñez, who pitched in behind the scenes Wednesday to help Bass win a feverish, 10-person battle for the top job.

Steve Maviglio, Núñez's spokesman, said the 48-member Democratic caucus will meet privately early today. Immediately afterward, the entire Assembly will vote on Bass' selection.

It Wasn't About Sewer and Water

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Carmen Kontur-Gronquist, the mayor of Arlington, Oregon, was recalled yesterday:

Recall backers faulted Kontur-Gronquist's handling of water and sewer problems, all but closing the money-losing municipal golf course, and how City Council meetings were conducted.

But it was the disclosure this winter of a photo of the fit 42-year-old posing on a city firetruck in a black bra and underpants posted to her MySpace page that turned the town topsy-turvy.

Do Not Robocall

posted by Josh Goodman

As CQ reports, North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper told a congressional committee he supports a federal law to restrict political robocalls. He's also pushing for state legislation to apply the "Do Not Call" list to political campaigns.

On a related note, I've been wondering whether this is the year we start getting unsolicited political text messages (shudder).

We're Talking Experience

posted by Alan Greenblatt

John Forlines, the founder of the Bank of Granite (doesn't that sound solid?), is looking to try a new career in politics. The Democrat has announced a run against North Carolina GOP Rep. Edgar Starnes.

Forlines is 90, which makes him eight years older than the current most senior member of the chamber, Dewey Hill. "My age gives me a pretty big edge because I've had a lot of good experience," he tells The News & Observer.

p.s. I snagged his picture off the bank's Web site -- I wonder how old it is. The styles look right out of the early 80s, to my eyes.

DLCC Spin

posted by Alan Greenblatt

I was surprised to see that the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's press release trumpeting the party's pickups in three special elections in recent days trumpets their meaning in terms of redistricting:

“Gains at the state legislative level have a long-term effect,” said DLCC Executive Director Michael Sargeant.  “We’re changing the conversation in the states, making sure Democrats have a seat at the table for redistricting, and training the future leaders.”

Florida, New York, and Virginia all cut Congressional and legislative district lines in their state legislatures.

Shouldn't DLCC, of all organizations, show some love for state legislators in terms other than seeing them as a farm team and line-drawers for Congress?

Bloomberg Says No

posted by Alan Greenblatt

He's told us once, he's told us a thousand times, but now he means it. Michael Bloomberg is not running for president.

AP: "I listened carefully to those who encouraged me to run, but I am not — and will not be — a candidate for president," he wrote. "I have watched this campaign unfold, and I am hopeful that the current campaigns can rise to the challenge by offering truly independent leadership."

Bloomberg had been weighing the decision heavily in recent days, aides said. The mayor himself says he'll potentially work to embrace a candidate who "takes an independent, nonpartisan approach, and embraces practical solutions that challenge party orthodoxy."

Hackney's Largesse

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Since the only people who I know for sure regularly read this blog work at NCSL, I will note that Joe* Hackney, the North Carolina House speaker (and future NCSL president), has donated the $10,000 he received from NCSL last year as part of its "excellence in leadership" award to a school:

The money goes to Silk Hope Elementary School in Chatham County to build an outdoor classroom and dining space, and to purchase a new projector and screen. The school has 440 students and recently celebrated its 100th anniversary.

Hackney, an Orange County Democrat, grew up on a farm near Silk Hope and graduated from its public school in 1963, which then served grades 1-12.

*corrected

The Down-Ballot Effect

posted by Alan Greenblatt

When was the last time you heard of a Democrat in the Deep South feeling encouraged because of the top of the party's national ticket?

Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright confirms reports that he is planning to run for Congress from Alabama's 2nd District.

Bright is a Democrat and the 2nd is heavily Republican but he has become convinced that Obama's strong showing in primary voting there -- the district is 29 percent African-American -- will help his cause.

Bright’s campaign recently released a polling memo suggesting that a huge show of support from the African-American community could “add 3 to 5 points” to his margins against leading Republican opponents.

Fundraising Sessions

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Like many other states, Maryland bans legislators from fundraising during regular sessions. However, they're free to pass the hat during special sessions, a loophole many took advantage of during last November's special.

Goo-goo groups are now pushing for a stricter ban:

Del. Saqib Ali (D-Montgomery) introduced the bill in response to concerns that many lawmakers -- including himself -- raised money during the legislature's November special session.

Still a Glass Ceiling

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Jodi Rell, back in Connecticut, recounts this tidbit from the governors' dinner with President Bush:

The sports-minded commander-in-chief asked whose state had the best basketball team.

Rell, recently returned from the NGA meeting, said today she immediately raised her hand.

"He said, 'I meant men,' " Rell said.

Plumping for Obama

posted by Alan Greenblatt

While in DC the other day, six Democratic governors appeared at a last-minute, $500-$1000 per person (and up, of course) fundraiser for Obama.

Top GOP Targets

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Jim Blaine, director of the North Carolina GOP Senate election committee, runs down the 10 districts where he thinks his candidates have the best shot of making pickups.

They're Super

posted by Josh Goodman

Former North Carolina Gov. Jim Hunt makes the case in favor of superdelegates in the Washington Post:

In creating superdelegates, the Democratic Party recognized the expertise that its top holders of public office have gained by running for office themselves. They are experts at winning. They know the issues. They are in a unique position to evaluate presidential candidates. They have a well-honed instinct for how candidates will be received in their own states and districts. In short, they can help the Democratic Party pick a winner.

But the superdelegates' value extends beyond the convention. If they play a role in picking the nominee, they will be more likely to campaign actively for the nominee in the general election.

I vividly remember the presidential election of 1972. George McGovern, a great senator and a war hero, had been nominated at a convention that included few top Democratic elected officials or regular party leaders. The Democratic Party that America saw on television that year and the platform it adopted seemed out of step with mainstream Democratic leaders. We felt the backlash in the elections.

Begich to Run for Senate

posted by Josh Goodman

Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is announcing today that he is running against Ted Stevens for U.S. Senate this year.

Anchorage is a good base from which to start in Alaska politics because it includes more than 40% of the state's population.

Update: Begich announced an exploratory committee, but he says he'll make a final decision later.

Another Swing at Term Limits

posted by Alan Greenblatt

South Dakota legislators are hoping they can convince voters to eliminate term limits.

The House yesterday approved a referendum to go before voters this November. It would eliminate the state's eight year per chamber limits. (The Senate earlier had rejected a proposal to keep term limits in place, but extend them to 12 years.)

More Veepstakes

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Chris Cilizza of washingtonpost.com, like so many others during the National Governors Association meeting, sat down with some of the governors whose names are known to the Great Mentioners in vice presidential speculation. His post includes video of the interviews, but here are choice passages:

Asked whether she would be interested in national office, [AK Gov Sarah] Palin responded: "Yes." She added that "being able to be in a position to help our nation, how amazing an opportunity would that be." Palin quickly added that she was well aware of the unlikely prospects of being picked this time around. "Absolutely I would say at this point I would say an impossibility," she said.

Contrast Palin's bluntness with the more tightly-held ambitions of three other governors -- Mark Sanford (R-S.C.), Kathleen Sebelius (D-Kan.) and Tim Pawlenty (R-Minn.) -- all likely to be in the final pool of potential picks and none willing to say anything that might remotely spoil their chances.

I loved this from Sanford:

"If you followed my vote record in the Congress you would see very clearly that I had no intention to run for another office for the rest of my life," Sanford said.

Gee -- didn't he run for governor after leaving Congress?

Ann Richards' Sons: Leave Our Mom Out of This

posted by Zach Patton

Former Texas Gov. Ann Richards, who died in 2006, has so far held off on endorsing a presidential candidate from the Afterlife.

But that hasn't stopped Hillary Clinton's campaign from suggesting that Richards would be supporting her in her fight for the presidency.

With permission from Richards' daughter Ellen, the Clinton camp has produced a two-minute Internet video that strongly implies that Richards would be campaigning for Clinton if she were alive.

Not so fast, say Ann Richards' sons:

But sons Dan and Clark Richards say nobody can know whom their mother would have supported in the race between Clinton and Barack Obama.

"As her children, we never presumed to know her mind when alive, and we are not prepared to make a claim as to who she would endorse or what she would do if she were still with us," they wrote in an e-mail last week.

NY Dems Win Seat, Come Close to Senate Majority

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Democratic state Rep. Darrel Aubertine won a special state Senate election yesterday, moving his party within two seats of ending the GOP's decades-long dominance of the upper chamber in New York.

AP: "With all the precincts reporting, Aubertine had 27,901 votes, or 52 percent, to 25,345 votes for Barclay, 48 percent."

Update: The New York Times has a longer take on this election.

Dems Win Bob Allen Seat

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Democrats picked up a Republican-leaning state House seat in Florida Tuesday, with Tony Sasso narrowly defeating his GOP opponent. It was the ninth House seat the party has picked up over the last two years in the Republican-dominated chamber.

The seat was vacated by Bob Allen, who was arrested last summer for solicting sex in a public bathroom from an undercover cop.

Mark Sanford's List

posted by Josh Goodman

Why are leading Republicans legislators in South Carolina focusing more on fundraising than in years past? They fear their own party's governor, Mark Sanford. The Post and Courier explains:

Rumors of a legislative "hit list" have been around so long it has become a Statehouse legend — an almost mythical sheet of paper said to hold the names of state lawmakers Gov. Mark Sanford wants to get rid of, at least politically.

Sanford insists no such list exists, but he makes no secret of the fact that he has, and might again, endorse challengers to incumbents with whom he disagrees.

No one at the Statehouse disputes the governor's right to campaign for or against whomever he wants; but they fear that political action committees friendly to Sanford's causes, and operated by his friends, are recruiting opponents with the promise of out-of-state campaign funding.

It is enough to make everyone, no matter how comfortable, take notice.

I love the phrase "at least politically." What's that supposed to mean?

KS Primary Fights

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Stay Red Kansas previews Kansas House contests in which incumbents are likely to face serious primary challenges.

Not Quite Time to Light Up

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Sponsors of a proposed medical marijuana initiative in Michigan have turned in 170,000 more signatures than necessary to qualify for the state ballot.

Charting His Own Course

posted by Alan Greenblatt

The Indianapolis Star profiles Jon Elrod, a Republican state representative seeking a congressional seat in a March 11 special election. The Star focuses on areas where Elrod has broken with party orthodoxy, notably on the issue of same-sex marriage:

Elrod was the lone Republican in the Indiana House -- out of 49 -- who refused to sign a petition demanding a floor vote on an amendment that would effectively make gay marriages, already illegal, also unconstitutional. Elrod hasn't had a chance to vote on the matter yet. But he says he is willing to become the first Republican in the General Assembly to vote against the amendment in the four years it has been an issue.

...

The irony with Elrod's opposition to the marriage amendment is that Elrod said his position is rooted in a basic Christian principle.

"I think marriage is a sacrament. That means it is something ordained by God. To have government dictating what that is is generally a bad idea," he said. "Right now we define marriage pretty poorly by the government. You are married just as long as you want to be. . . .

"That is not at all what my church teaches."

Elrod, who is single and a lifelong United Methodist, has seen marriages dissolve in front of him regularly through his law practice, which includes divorce cases. But he said his position on marriage -- that it is a church matter, not a state matter -- is also grounded in the writings of C.S. Lewis, the Christian sage behind "The Chronicles of Narnia," and a host of Christian books.

Holmes: Had Enough

posted by Alan Greenblatt

North Carolina state Rep. George Holmes announces he will not seek a 17th term, citing poor health.

Too Close to Call

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Florida Today predicts a close race in today's special election to replaced disgraced former Rep. Bob Allen.

"The Ideal Republican Candidate"

posted by Josh Goodman

Democratic governors say John McCain will be tough to beat, as the Washington Post reports:

To quote President Bush, McCain is never to be misunderestimated," said Gov. Janet Napolitano of Arizona, McCain's home state. "He's a tough campaigner."

"In some ways," said Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania, a state that is considered a must-win for any Democratic nominee, "he's the ideal [Republican] candidate for Pennsylvania."

...

"He is appealing in Michigan," said Gov. Jennifer Granholm, who supports Clinton. "He does appeal to independent thinkers -- at least he did in the past -- and we have a lot of those in Michigan. Whoever the Democrat is, Michigan is a state where we're going to have to work."

...

"I think John McCain could have an appeal to a lot of Ohioans," said Gov. Ted Strickland, a Clinton supporter. "I don't think it's a given that John McCain can't win the election. I just think that, rightly or wrongly, he is perceived as a straight-talking, independent, honest person." But if McCain appears to be pandering to his party's conservative base, Strickland said, he might not do as well.

The Next Mayor of Detroit?

posted by Josh Goodman

Should Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick resign as a result of the text messaging scandal, who would take over as mayor of Detroit? I didn't know until I looked it up: City Council President Ken Cockrel Jr.

Here's how Crain's Detroit Business describes him:

As the legal quicksand surrounding Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick continues to get deeper, the spotlight on Detroit City Council President Ken Cockrel Jr. — viewed by many in the business community as a rational, calm consensus-builder — gets brighter.

...

Cockrel grew up surrounded by politics. His father was the late Kenneth Cockrel Sr., a former city councilman and civil rights activist, known for his rapid-fire oratory.

...

As City Council president, Cockrel is viewed as a voice of reason leading an elected group of people who often fight bitterly among themselves and with the mayor.

For now, it looks like Kilpatrick is sticking around, but he is up for reelection in 2009.

Schauer vs. Walberg

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Our colleagues over at CQ offer a handy plot summary of the congressional race in Michigan featuring Mark Schauer, floor leader of the state Senate Democrats, trying to unseat freshman GOP Rep. Tim Walberg in a much-watched contest.

Mike Huckabee Knows He's Overstaying His Welcome

posted by Zach Patton

Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and current presidential candidate (??), was on "Saturday Night Live" this weekend for the show's first post-writers'-strike episode.

Huckabee is always so affable and well-spoken and geniunely funny. Seriously, the guy's got charisma.

Anyway, he didn't disappoint on "SNL," poking fun at the fact that he refuses to get out of the presidential race, even though winning it is a "mathematical impossibility" -- a phrase Huckabee "admits" he doesn't understand.

Do Mayoral Endorsements Work?

posted by Josh Goodman

Brian Weatherson makes a surprising argument:

After the Super Tuesday primaries in the U.S., there was a lot of discussion that various big-name endorsements seem to have not made much difference. Most notably, despite being endorsed by Governor Patrick and Senators Kennedy and Kerry, Barack Obama got beaten heavily in Massachusetts. But what struck me at the time, and what seems to have been confirmed by subsequent contests, is that (at least in Democratic primaries) mayoral endorsements seem to make an enormous difference in the campaign. Not only does the candidate with the most endorsements seem to routinely win, they seem to outperform their poll numbers.

I just looked at gubernatorial endorsements and found that they usually don't make much of a difference.

Do Gubernatorial Endorsements Work?

posted by Josh Goodman

Hillary Clinton's fading presidential hopes hinge, to a large extent, on the abilities of two governors. In Ohio, she has the help of Ted Strickland. If she survives Ohio and Texas, the next big test will be Pennsylvania, where Ed Rendell is backing her.

But do gubernatorial endorsements actually help presidential candidates? This year's primaries and caucuses suggest the answer is no -- or at least not usually.

So far, thirty governors have endorsed prior to their party's vote. In ten of those cases, the state hasn't vote yet. Out of the other twenty, twelve times the governor backed the candidate that ended up winning. You can see the full list below (endorsements that occurred after the primary or caucus aren't included).

Sixty percent might sound likely a pretty good record. Both parties had competitive multi-candidate fields for quite a while, so even 50% success wouldn't be horrible. On closer inspection, however, the results are less impressive.

Him With His Foot in His Mouth

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell explains why Hillary Clinton, whom he has endorsed, or Obama would be unlikely to pick him as Number Two:

“I would hate to think that an honest but politically incorrect answer that I gave as a vice presidential candidate might hurt my running mate who is running for president of the United States,” Rendell said.

Rep. to Challenge Sens.

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Vermont Rep. Daryl Pillsbury, an independent, has announced plans to challenge Democratic Sens. Peter Shumlin, the president pro tempore, and Jeanette White.

Jackson County Democrats

posted by Alan Greenblatt

The Jackson Citizen Patriot profiles Michigan Reps. Mike Simpson and Martin Griffin, two Democrats who helped break the GOP's stranglehold on Jackson County and helped their party take over the state House back in 2006.

Note the Yoda quote on Simpson's board.

Hat tip: Michigan Liberal.

Ten Guvs Still Holding Their Cards

posted by Zach Patton

As Stateline.org writes, 10 of the nation's Democratic governors still have not endorsed a presidential candidate in the Clinton-Obama race. And it doesn't sound like these governors -- who are superdelegates to the convention -- will tip their hat any time soon.

But the endorsements could make a big impact, Stateline says:

Of the 10 uncommitted governors, five are from states whose voters haven’t yet weighed in on the choice between U.S. Sen. Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination for president.

Of course, the New York Times says the guvs are more focused on the vice-presidential picks. It does add an interesting twist:  As a governor, do you back the candidate you most want to be president, or do you back the candidate most people in your state want?

Or do you back the candidate most likely to give you a job?

California Jockeying

posted by Alan Greenblatt

The Sacramento Bee has an interesting story about the internal politicking to succeed Fabian Nunez as speaker of the California Assembly. No clear frontrunner, in contrast to Senate Democrats, who've already tapped Darrell Steinberg.

Bee columnist Dan Walters suggests that the continuing force of term limits in California will mean a change not only in leadership but in the size of the Democratic majorities:

Two of the termed-out Republicans, Bonnie Garcia of Cathedral City and Shirley Horton of San Diego, hold seats that were designated for Democrats in the bipartisan gerrymandering of districts in 2001 but went Republican in 2002. Both districts, however, have retained their Democratic edges in voter registration and could easily change parties.

The other vulnerable GOP seats are now held by Guy Houston of San Ramon and Greg Aghazarian of Stockton. Their adjacent, commuter-heavy districts were designated for the GOP in 2001 but are now virtually tied in voter registration and could also shift to the Democrats.

On the flip side, one of the 12 Democrat-held seats being vacated this year due to term limits, that of Nicole Parra of Hanford, could go Republican. Parra is engaged in a long-running political feud with Sen. Dean Florez, D-Shafter, whose mother, Fran, is running for Parra's seat. Parra has virtually endorsed the likely Republican candidate, Danny Gilmore. But Democrats still have an eight-point registration advantage.

Losing four seats and gaining one would drop Republicans to 29 seats in the 80-member Assembly, but still leave Democrats three votes shy of the two-thirds needed on critical budget and taxation issues.

Democrats could gain a two-thirds dominance in the 40-member Senate, however, if a recall being mounted by Perata against Republican Sen. Jeff Denham of Atwater succeeds and if the GOP loses the district now represented by termed-out Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks, whose GOP voter registration edge has been shrinking.

Pawlenty for VP

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Here's the hometown paper version.

How Much Would You Pay

posted by Alan Greenblatt

The New York Times (I know -- boo, hiss) has a feature about the big-money special state Senate election tomorrow in upstate NY. Republicans have held the Senate for decades but Democrats have been gaining ground, which makes the seat vacated by James Wright a hot property:

The 48th Senate District, in the upper reaches of the state, almost irrelevant in state politics for so long, has become the Fort Sumter of a multimillion-dollar war between Democrats, led by Gov. Eliot Spitzer, and Republicans, for control of the Senate.

...

Both parties have shoveled millions of dollars into the race, much of it for television and radio advertisements and mailers. Joseph L. Bruno, the Senate majority leader, has pledged more than $2 million from Senate Republicans for Mr. Barclay. The state Democratic Party has pledged about as much to Mr. Aubertine. Most of the money is coming from outside the district. Of about $722,000 raised by Mr. Aubertine in the latest filing period, 3.5 percent came from within the district, according to the New York Public Interest Research Group, as did 1.4 percent of the $699,000 raised by Mr. Barclay.

“The Republicans have come on lean times in New York in terms of statewide offices and are very worried about the statewide majority,” said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “The margins are very slim and can only get slightly slimmer. And looking ahead to November, it starts to become, in what will be a presidential election year and a good Democratic turnout in New York, somewhat worrisome for the Republicans, independent of Spitzer’s low standing at the moment.”

Quiet Primaries

posted by Alan Greenblatt

The Indianapolis Star lays out the local races in the May 6 primary and notes that, although half the state Senate and all the state House will be up for grabs, voters in Indiana will witness the usual lack of intraparty competition:

Of the 25 Senate seats on the ballot, only eight races statewide have more than one candidate on the Republican ballot and only six races statewide have more than one candidate on the Democratic ballot.

In the House races, only 14 on the Democratic ballot have more than one candidate, and only 18 Republican races have more than one candidate.

Who Will McCain Pick?

posted by Alan Greenblatt

I have to admit I read stories speculating about possible vice presidential picks with deep skepticism. If ever there were a subject that proves everybody knows nothing, it's this.

I can remember when we at CQ put together a fat guide to the 1996 Republican convention. We included a piece that weighed the pros and cons of about three-dozen GOP heavyweights. Not one of them was Jack Kemp, who was in fact Bob Dole's pick. If that makes you stop and say, "oh, yeah," it should remind you that for all the attention given to vice presidential selections and what these may say about the nominees, running mates are seldom heard from once their identities actually emerge. (Until they take over the White House, plead nolo contendere or turn out to have endured shock treatments.)

All of which brings me to George Will's column looking at John McCain's likeliest selections. Will dismisses Colin Powell due to age and Kay Bailey Hutchison due to lack of executive experience. He concentrates then on four sitting Republican governors: the inevitable Charlie Crist, Haley Barbour, Mark Sanford and Tim Pawlenty.

To which I say -- sounds plausible, but "none of the above" is probably a safer bet at this point.

Limits on Judicial Contributions

posted by Alan Greenblatt

The issue of big-spending judicial races has become important enough to get the attention of John Grisham -- and Alabama state Rep. Chris England, who is introducing legislation to cap donations to candidates for the bench, the Tuscaloosa News reports:

“The perception is that money buys justice,” England, D-Tuscaloosa, said Friday.

England introduced a bill to limit contributions in judicial races to $500 per race or $1,500 if there is a primary, a runoff, and then the general election. He pointed to the cost of the 2006 appellate court races as a reason.

Two years ago, 15 candidates spent $13.4 million, making the races in Alabama the most expensive in the nation. The second most expensive races were in Texas, where $3.5 million was spent.

His bill is scheduled for a committee hearing on March 5.

(The photograph shows John England Jr., Rep. England's father, who is a circuit court judge and former Alabama Supreme Court justice.)

"Genetically Inclined Disorders"

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Texas Gov. Rick Perry has a new book out extolling the traditional values of the Boy Scouts. He tells The Washington Post that being gay is akin to a trait that adults can learn not to let control their lives:

Look, I agree with the right of individuals to choose their own sexual orientation. . . . But I don't believe that parents enroll their sons in Scouts to get a lesson on human sexuality. And if there is an openly gay Scoutmaster, the kids are going to talk about it.

Being gay: Choice? Not a choice? You referred to it as a choice.

I'm not a social scientist. I can't answer the question of, "Is it the environment that one finds oneself in or is it the way you're wired up when you are born?" I don't know. I do know this: that people have a choice to engage in that activity.

For instance, there's probably a debate that goes on about if you're an alcoholic you were born with that genetic trait. But every day, individuals realize that that is a trait that is not particularly good for their health, not good for their well-being and that it can be controlled with responsible behavior. And I would suggest that that is probably an argument that can be made for a host of genetically inclined disorders. If that in fact is where they come from.

Obit

From the Burlington Free Press:

Rep. David Clark, a tall, quiet Republican legislator from St. Johnsbury who had served in the House for 10 years, died Thursday. He was 85. Clark’s passing comes just a month after the death of Rep. Cola Hudson, a fellow Northeast Kingdom Republican who served with Hudson on the House Government Operations Committee. ... Clark had served as St. Johnsbury town manager for 36 years. Fellow legislators said he brought that knowledge of local government to the Legislature and was an invaluable resource.

Always a Rove Angle

posted by Alan Greenblatt

Former GOP operative Jill Simpson tells CBS that Karl Rove wanted her to get compromising pictures of Don Siegelman as part of an effort to discredit him during his 2002 bid for reelection as governor of Alabama.

"Karl Rove asked you to take pictures of Siegelman?" asks Pelley.

"Yes," replies Simpson.

"In a compromising, sexual position with one of his aides," clarifies Pelley.

"Yes, if I could," says Simpson.

Rove didn't speak to CBS, but has denied being part of any anti-Siegelman smear campaign.

You can watch this interview Sunday during "60 Minutes" (if you can tear yourselves away from the Oscars).