Do Gubernatorial Endorsements Work?

posted by Josh Goodman

Hillary Clinton's fading presidential hopes hinge, to a large extent, on the abilities of two governors. In Ohio, she has the help of Ted Strickland. If she survives Ohio and Texas, the next big test will be Pennsylvania, where Ed Rendell is backing her.

But do gubernatorial endorsements actually help presidential candidates? This year's primaries and caucuses suggest the answer is no -- or at least not usually.

So far, thirty governors have endorsed prior to their party's vote. In ten of those cases, the state hasn't vote yet. Out of the other twenty, twelve times the governor backed the candidate that ended up winning. You can see the full list below (endorsements that occurred after the primary or caucus aren't included).

Sixty percent might sound likely a pretty good record. Both parties had competitive multi-candidate fields for quite a while, so even 50% success wouldn't be horrible. On closer inspection, however, the results are less impressive.

In Michigan, for example, the absence of either Barack Obama or John Edwards from the ballot had more to do with Clinton's victory than the backing of Gov. Jennifer Granholm. Three other wins came in states where the endorsed candidate had a home-state advantage (Obama in Illinois and Clinton in Arkansas and New York).

Those victories suggest a larger problem in determining whether endorsements matter. Endorsers always like to pick winners. Governors enjoy political benefits from choosing the victorious candidate, from good press to future campaign help to presidential appointments.

So, endorsements often reflect who is going to win a state, more so than they influence the outcome. When Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire endorsed Obama a day before her state's caucuses, for example, that struck me as a confirmation, rather than a cause, of Obama's victory.

Gubernatorial endorsements may be swaying voters at the margins, but other factors are clearly more important. Obama does best in caucus states, states with large numbers of black voters and states with lots of wealthy, well-educated voters.

He won Maryland easily because of the demographics, in spite of Gov. Martin O'Malley's endorsement of Clinton. Obama lost Arizona because Democratic voters there weren't as good of a fit for him, even though Gov. Janet Napolitano supported him.

If you're searching for endorsements that might have made a difference, there are a couple of prominent ones on the Republican side. Florida Gov. Charlie Crist threw his support behind McCain at the least moment, helping McCain secure a narrow win. Ditto for Schwarzenegger and McCain in California.

But there also have been prominent flops on the Republican side. Missouri Gov. Matt Blunt endorsed Romney, who finished third in the Show-Me State. The least effective endorsement to date? Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. backed McCain, only to see the Arizona senator lose to Romney 90%-5% in his home state.

Huntsman's loyalty could still be rewarded with a spot on the ticket with McCain. If that happens, we'll know of one endorsement that worked beyond any doubt.

State	Governor	Endorsed	Success
Alabama	Bob Riley	None	NA
Alaska	Sarah Palin	None	NA
Arizona	Janet Napolitano	Obama	No
Arkansas	Mike Beebe	Clinton	Yes
California	Arnold Schwarzenegger	McCain	Yes
Colorado	Bill Ritter	None	NA
Connecticut	Jodi Rell	McCain	Yes
Delaware	Ruth Ann Minner	Clinton	No
Florida	Charlie Crist	McCain	Yes
Georgia	Sonny Perdue	None	NA
Hawaii	Linda Lingle	None yet	NA
Idaho	Butch Otter	None yet	NA
Illinois	Rod Blagojevich	Obama	Yes
Indiana	Mitch Daniels	McCain	TBD
Iowa	Chet Culver	None	NA
Kansas	Kathleen Sebelius	Obama	Yes
Kentucky	Steve Beshear	None yet	NA
Louisiana	Bobby Jindal	None	NA
Maine	John Baldacci	Clinton	No
Maryland	Martin O'Malley	Clinton	No
Massachusetts	Deval Patrick	Obama	No
Michigan	Jennifer Granholm	Clinton	Yes
Minnesota	Tim Pawlenty	McCain	No
Mississippi	Haley Barbour	None yet	NA
Missouri	Matt Blunt	Romney	No
Montana	Brian Schweitzer	None yet	NA
Nebraska	Dave Heineman	Romney	TBD
Nevada	Jim Gibbons	None	NA
New Hampshire	John Lynch	None	NA
New Jersey	Jon Corzine	Clinton	Yes
New Mexico	Bill Richardson	None	NA
New York	Eliot Spitzer	Clinton	Yes
North Carolina	Mike Easley	Edwards	TBD
North Dakota	John Hoeven	None	NA
Ohio	Ted Strickland	Clinton	TBD
Oklahoma	Brad Henry	None	NA
Oregon	Ted Kulongoski	Clinton	TBD
Pennsylvania	Ed Rendell	Clinton	TBD
Rhode Island	Don Carcieri	Romney, then McCain	TBD
South Carolina	Mark Sanford	None	NA
South Dakota	Mike Rounds	Huckabee	TBD
Tennessee	Phil Bredesen	None	NA
Texas	Rick Perry	Giuliani, then McCain	TBD
Utah	Jon Huntsman	McCain	No
Vermont	Jim Douglas	McCain	TBD
Virginia	Tim Kaine	Obama	Yes
Washington	Christine Gregoire	Obama	Yes
West Virginia	Joe Manchin	None yet	NA
Wisconsin	Jim Doyle	Obama	Yes
Wyoming	Dave Freudenthal	None yet	NA

Comments

[cardiology emr]

Well, endorsements often reflect who is going to win a state, more so than they influence the outcome.

Kevin

[Medical software review]

think one of the greatest hurdles is overcoming misconceptions in the minds of regulators, doctors and patients alike. I just returned from a trip to Germany and colleagues there are amused about America's 3rd World-like medical records situation.

[Doctors online]

I think this can go a head.